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<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"
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         article-type="Research Paper"
         xml:lang="en">
  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>International Research Journal of Scientific Reports and Reviews</journal-title>
        <abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">IRJSRR</abbrev-journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
      <issn pub-type="epub">3108-1711</issn>
      <publisher>
        <publisher-name>Raghav Sharma</publisher-name>
      </publisher>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">IRJSRR110013</article-id>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>An Explainable Ensemble Machine Learning Model for Short-Term Flood Occurrence Prediction Using Hydro-Climatic Time-Series Data</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Gautam</surname>
            <given-names>Priyanshu</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Mahura</surname>
            <given-names>Shivani</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Sanskar</surname>
            <given-names>Sanskar Hajela</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Gautam</surname>
            <given-names>Priyanshu</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Mahura</surname>
            <given-names>Shivani</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Sanskar</surname>
            <given-names>Sanskar Hajela</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/>
        </contrib>
      </contrib-group>
      <aff id="aff1">prof</aff>
      <pub-date pub-type="epub" iso-8601-date="2026-03-03">
        <month>03</month>
        <day>03</day>
        <year>2026</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>1</volume>
      <issue>1</issue>
      <fpage>155</fpage>
      <lpage>177</lpage>
      <permissions>
        <license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
          <license-p>This article is published under the terms of the Creative Commons license.</license-p>
        </license>
      </permissions>
      <abstract>
        <p>Floods are really harmful surprise elements of nature, and as such, making short-term flood prediction very accurate is a major requirement of early-warning systems done in such a way as to prevent human and property losses, economic disruption, etc. Still, they are hard to guess due to the very intricate combination of hydrological, climatic, and other environmental factors. The present paper offers an interpretable ensemble machine learning framework for predicting the times of flood events around 1-3 days ahead via the use of hydrology, climate, and environmental indicators together. The method offers great help through data preprocessing, feature normalisation, and the application of various regression models to cost-continuous flood probabilities estimation. Random Forest and Gradient Boosting algorithms are used to find and improve prediction accuracy through capturing non-linear relationships, while a hybrid ensemble method combines the advantages of individual models. Decision-making is made simplistic by the conversion of probabilistic outputs into binary flood alerts at a predetermined fixed threshold. The framework is executed and tested in a MATLAB-Simulink setting, and the analysis confirms its readiness for real-time operations. The results from the experiments indicate that the learning through the ensemble approach has significantly improved the prediction reliability and interpretability as compared to single model techniques.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group kwd-group-type="author">
        <kwd>Flood Prediction</kwd>
        <kwd>Short-Term Forecasting</kwd>
        <kwd>Early Warning Systems</kwd>
        <kwd>Ensemble Machine Learning</kwd>
        <kwd>Random Forest</kwd>
        <kwd>Gradient Boosting</kwd>
        <kwd>Hydrological Modeling</kwd>
        <kwd>Climate Indicators</kwd>
        <kwd>Environmental Data</kwd>
        <kwd>Flood Risk Assessment</kwd>
        <kwd>Probabilistic Prediction</kwd>
        <kwd>Binary Classification</kwd>
        <kwd>Feature Normalization</kwd>
        <kwd>Data Preprocessing</kwd>
        <kwd>Non-linear Modeling</kwd>
        <kwd>Hybrid Ensemble Model</kwd>
        <kwd>Real-time Prediction</kwd>
        <kwd>MATLAB Simulink</kwd>
        <kwd>Disaster Management</kwd>
        <kwd>Flood Alert Systems</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
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</article>
